I’ve gone into why the tracked TEL is significant above similar reasoning applies with this launcher, especially as Pyongyang has shown an interest in salvo-launching Scuds and Nodongs in a possible first strike scenario. This is where things got particularly interesting, catching off-guard many North Korea experts who were watching the parade live.įirst, Pyongyang showed off a Scud/Nodong-variant - again on a tracked TEL - with fins on the nose cone. North Korea saved its biggest and baddest missiles for last, as is custom at these parades. Going back to my original point - that Saturday’s display should merit attention similar to a nuclear test - the KN-11, KN-15, and possible Kh-35 variant TEL’s appearance were really the amuse bouche for North Korea watchers at the parade. North Korea also showed off other platforms we’ve seen before, including its SA-5 surface-to-air missile and new Multiple Launch Rocket System. The tracked TELs are again suggestive of Pyongyang envisioning their use in a versatile “shoot-and-scoot” coastal artillery scenario, where each unit would strike surface combatants at sea and move to avoid retaliation. Though uncertain, it is likely that the new TEL is intended to launch North Korea’s non-nuclear anti-ship cruise missile, which is thought to be based off the Russian Zvezda Kh-35. In addition to the KN-11 and KN-15, we saw a new type of Korean People’s Army tracked TEL carrying four smaller canisterized missiles. (Credit: KCTV screen capture via YouTube) The new tracked TELs, presumably for an anti-ship missile. Together, these platforms make the prospect of a preemptive strike by the United States or South Korea less palatable, leaving open the prospect of nuclear retaliation. North Korea showed off six KN-15 TELs at Saturday’s parade. In sum, both the KN-11 and the KN-15 are about increasing survivability and obtaining a second strike capability. Second, the canisterization of the solid fuel missile means that North Korea would be able to store the system remotely and launch it with little warning, eliminating the sort of support vehicles that would generate a large satellite signature for the United States and South Korea to observe in a potential preemption scenario. North Korea has just 724 km of paved roads compared to 24,830 km of unpaved roads and regular TEL trucks cannot realistically go off-road without applying dangerous physical stress to the chassis of the missile they’d carry. As I discussed in February, the tracked TEL is particularly a good investment for North Korea, which has a high ratio of unpaved to paved roads.

The missile, which is a land-launched variant of the KN-11, was notable for using a tracked transporter erector launcher (TEL) and for being fully canisterized (i.e., enclosed and ready for launch). (Credit: KCTV screen capture via YouTube)īeyond the SLBM, we saw North Korea make important advances with its test of the Pukkuksong-2 (or KN-15) solid fuel ballistic missile in February this year (when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was visiting the United States). On top of this, North Korea has been steadily working to operationalize an intercontinental-range ballistic missile capable of striking most of the U.S. It has additionally worked to decrease the time required for a missile launch and the satellite signature of its platforms. In addition to drastically increasing the frequency of its testing - North Korea has carried out 37 missile tests since the start of 2016 - Pyongyang has spent a great deal of effort toward developing survivable platforms and worked to operationalize a second-strike capability. Keep in mind first that we’ve observed a pretty clear trend in North Korean ballistic missile testing over the past couple years. In the coming days and weeks, we should see analytical deep dives into the parade footage from the community of dedicated North Korea watchers.

Below, I run through some of what was shown off with brief comment.

Though it did not ultimately test a nuclear device on Saturday morning, what North Korea showed off at the parade should be equally concerning, even though it likely won’t be treated as such in the broader news cycle in the West. The parade took place amid hot speculation in the United States, Japan, and South Korea that Pyongyang would look to also potentially test a sixth nuclear device, which it did not do. It commemorates not only the driving force behind the country’s founding, but also the patriarch of the Kim dynasty, whose personality cult rules supreme over North Korea to this day.

The day, also known in the country as the ‘Day of the Sun,’ is the most important public holiday in North Korea. On Saturday, North Korea staged a massive military parade to commemorate the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder and grandfather of current leader, Kim Jong-un.

Victory day parade 2017